W(h)ither Labour?

Labour’s result in the Holyrood elections on 5 May 2016 was dreadful ... but it wasn’t simply the result of a poor campaign. The poll of polls on Pro-Indy website Scot Goes Pop! at the start of campaigning on 1 March gave Labour 21% on the constituency poll and 19% on the regional poll. That compares to final figures of 22.6% and 19.1% on the day.

Labour’s result was confirmation of its dire position since the referendum in September 2014, and was made worse by the fact that the party was overtaken by the Conservatives. This is both a psychological blow for Labour and a real one. (Politics is a zero-sum game – what is good for your opponents is bad for you.)

Perhaps Labour could have achieved a better result by offering more centrist policies on tax (or more unequivocally radical ones) or by opposing a referendum more clearly (or by offering further flexibility on the constitutional issue). However, my own guess is that Labour is the victim of circumstances that are of its own making (historically) but which are now beyond its control. If this is the case, then all it can do is keep trying to shift the focus away from the constitution and onto day-to-day issues, but with no guarantee of success.